So here I am, sitting at .500 on the year with a 17-17 picks record, but I feel really good about this upcoming week and the games taking place.
Starting with my lock of the week, I’m going to be riding with a huge line in an SEC matchup. My lock is Georgia -20.5 at Tennessee this weekend.
Georgia is undoubtedly the best team in the nation by a country a mile with their defense only allowing 6.5 points per game behind Heisman dark horse, Jordan Davis.
While their defense is only allowing 6.5 points per game, on offense they’re also getting the job done. They’re averaging 38.4 points per game with huge wins over Auburn, Arkansas, and Kentucky. The Bulldogs are winning games by an average margin of 31.9 points. Wild.
Now the reason I’m making this 20.5 point spread my lock is that Tennessee isn’t a good football team. While they have a 5-4 record, their only convincing win this season was a three point win over Kentucky. Georgia beat Kentucky by seventeen.
What this game really comes down to is how good Georgias defense is. No team has scored over thirteen points on the Bulldogs and it won’t happen this weekend.
Lock it up, Georgia -20.5 at Tennessee.
Up next, I’m a big fan of a road dog in the AAC. Hammer Central Florida +7.5 at SMU this Saturday.
Earlier this year I bet on SMU and they failed me so now, my thought process is to bet against them. UCF has played decent this season. They’ve lost to the teams you expect them to lose to and have beaten the ones you expect them to beat.
Another key factor is SMU is on a two game skid. They’ve lost to Houston and Memphis and I think they’ve kind of lost their “will to play” seeing that they’re out of contention for the AAC title.
This is one of those gut feeling games that I really like.
Bet UCF +7.5 at SMU.
The next game I’m betting on is one that I almost made my lock. I love Notre Dame -5.5 at Virginia.
This game is going to be a good one. Virginia is an underrated squad, but Notre Dame has already traveled to Virginia this season and beat Virginia Tech. The road element will not play a factor in this game.
Notre Dames defense has really heated up, especially after a big 34-6 win over Navy where defensive tackle Kurt Hinish tallied 10 tackles and a sack.
The Hokies will game plan for Hinish and free up pass rushers like Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa and Isaiah Foskey. That will be the key factor in the matchup and I think the Irish defense dominates and makes life difficult for Virginias offense.
Another little wrinkle that I look at is Virginia got beat by UNC by twenty points this season, and Notre Dame just topped the Tar Heels by ten. Just food for thought.
Bet your house on Notre Dame -5.5 at Virginia.
And the last game that I really like this weekend is Oklahoma State -12.5 vs TCU.
Oklahoma State has been a very electric and dominant squad with an average win margin of 14.4 points. For TCU, their average loss margin is 13 points. It’s right there matching with the 12.5 point spread.
The Cowboys have a handful of good wins this year beating Baylor, Texas, and Boise State, while TCU has somewhat underperformed this season.
Another thing that I’m taking into consideration is that TCU recently gassed Gary Patterson so the Horned Frogs have to deal with that. Just a gut feeling.
Take Oklahoma State -12.5 vs TCU.