Took a bit of a beating last week with my 1-3 record, but I’m ready to have another 4-0 week so lets bounce back.
My lock of the week this week is an over under game between two service academies. I’m locking in Army at Air Force over 36.5 total points.
When I look at this game, everything is telling me to HAMMER this over.
Army is averaging 34.5 points per game while also allowing 32 points per game. For Air Force, they’re averaging 30.5 points per game and have allowed an average of 16.8 points per game this season.
Even if you added together the two squads average points allowed, it would smash the over. I’m fairly shocked at how low this over is for this game, I would have expected somewhere around 42.5 or 43.5. This games is about as much of a lock as you can get.
Hammer Army at Air Force over 36.5.
The next game on the docket is an ACC matchup. I love Wake Forest +2.5 at North Carolina. Wake looks ridiculously well rounded, while the Tar Heels are coming off a loss to Notre Dame.
UNC kind of drew the short straw by having to play the Irish and then the Demon Deacons back to back weeks.
One of the main reasons I really like Wake Forest this week is because when they played Army, they had only seventeen total minutes of possession, yet they scored seventy points. Their offense led by Sam Hartman gets the job done by striking fast and often.
For UNC they’ve been about as dismal and disappointing as it gets. The Tar Heels have dropped games to Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech this year. Wake Forest blew FSU out earlier this season.
I do understand that a road game is a factor, but it really isn’t when you’re traveling an hour and a half east. Plus, Wake has been solid on the road as their 3-0 by an average margin of 12.3 points.
Much like last week, I didn’t understand why Oregon was a ranked road underdog and I don’t understand it here.
Pick it, Wake Forest +2.5 at North Carolina.
Next up is a team I actually bet against last week that I’m hoping will help me this week. I’m picking Houston -13.5 at South Florida.
Houston find themselves ranked in the top twenty five this week and the Cougars are on a seven game win streak. In those seven games, their average margin of victory has been by 22.4 points.
As for the Bulls from South Florida, they’re not very good. They’re 2-6 on the year with really bad losses to squads like East Carolina and Tulsa. Just a flat football team that has been super underwhelming.
What I like about Houston is they just knocked off an undefeated and ranked SMU team by a touchdown. The Cougars are now fighting to break into the top sixteen to eighteen to land a big bowl game so I don’t think they’ll let their foot off the gas in any remaining games.
I’m predicting that this games gets ugly early and stays ugly.
Bang on Houston -13.5 at South Florida.
Final game I’ll be betting on is another ACC matchup. I’ll be taking North Carolina State -2.5 vs Florida State.
Honestly, I don’t have much of an explanation here. I just have a gut feeling because Florida State has been really bad and NC State has quality wins over teams like Clemson, BC, and Louisville.
Also, whenever I’ve bet on NC State, they haven’t let me down.
Sometimes you just get a feeling about a game and you really stick to it and this is one of those games.
Take North Carolina State -2.5 vs Florida State.
(Record on the year, 16-13)